Like Chile, which was ruled by the center-left coalition twenty years after the fall of Pinochet, Brazil, in the last sixteen years has been driven by the left of center parties Fernando Henrique Cardoso and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Dilma Rousseff The assumption ensures the continuity of the left parties of the center for four years. However, contrary to the Chilean experience, in which the Christian Democrats and Socialists, the main political parties in opposition to the dictatorship, they formed a coalition in Brazil's two main parties, the Social Democracy Party of Brazil (PSDB) and the Workers' Party (PT) have been political rivals.
Political differences between the two main political parties in Brazil, which traces its origins to the left of center groups in São Paulo, which long resisted the Brazilian military dictatorship (1964-85), do not translate into significant differences terms of macroeconomic stability. The pillars of macroeconomic policy has been the use of the exchange rate as an instrument to combat inflation, which has not changed with the implementation of inflation targeting since 1999, and maintenance of primary surpluses, but in the second half of the Lula government, especially after the global crisis of 2008-9, was pursued a counter-cyclical fiscal policy. Perhaps the most distinctive feature of the administration of the Workers Party, compared with the previous one, is the expansion of social programs and the minimum wage, and the resulting improvement in income distribution.
The rest of the paper is divided into three parts. The first, a look of economic performance from Lula's first term, with emphasis on the main features of the macroeconomic policy framework. The next section deals with social and development programs distribution of income. The last section analysis of what to expect from the third party within the worker in charge of the Brazilian administration.
"locomotive or caboose?
Since an economist at Goldman Sachs suggested that Brazil, along with Russia, India and China, was part of a panel of economies, the BRIC countries, which would take care of global GDP by mid-century, Brazil's economic performance has been feted in the international media. The perception, however, in Brazil as one of the locomotives of world economy growth in the XXI century is peculiar, at least. During the long period of time associated with the state-led development strategies, roughly from late 1940 to around 1980, Brazil grew at an average of 7.5 percent per year. The debt crisis led to the so-called lost decade, implying growth rates, on average, 1.5 percent, which was much better than for the rest of Latin America during this period. The stabilization period, combined with Fernando Henrique Cardoso as finance minister and president, covering 1993 to 2002, was associated with a small recovery in economic growth rates by 2.8%. It should be noted that as of late 1980, a major liberalization in the context of the doctrine of the Washington Consensus has been implemented in Brazil. In this regard, many economic analysts believe the election of Lula announced an investment in the development strategy, which could reverse some of the liberalization policies of the previous decade. As it turned out that the break with past policies was considerably less marked than expected, and in many ways, the Lula administration represents a continuation of the liberalizing policies of the 1990's. Economic performance, measured by real GDP growth, showed an improvement, with a growth rate of 4.1 percent per year on average, but this was a global phenomenon. Brazil also rose slightly above the world average of about 3.4 percent, well below the countries leading the growth in Asia and Latin America. In other words, the Brazilian economy was not leading the world economy in terms of growth, and far from the vision perceived as one of the most dynamic economies in the world. To view the entire document, see here
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