Cesaratto Sergio - February 1, 2011
In a tough speech at a meeting held at the Lingotto, in earlier days, Walter Veltroni, facing some economic problems in worthwhile reflection.
The main focus of the proposed Veltroni is "do as Germany", or "Agenda 2020 for Italy," in imitation of the Schröder-Fischer government (1998-2002), who laid the foundation of German success to the crisis, but it seems afterwards. This model, as is known, had as a basis for wage moderation and flexibility, according to unions, for the use of the workforce. Now it was accompanied by the support of technological innovation activities. This policy has led to the revival of the German model based on internal discipline, the technological quality of export development - a challenge which involves the compression of domestic consumption.
This model, which we have elsewhere called "ordo-mercantilist " actually was helped by the simultaneous creation of the European Monetary Union (EMU). You should also be noted that Germany has reacted with perfect timing the opportunity to be served on a silver platter by their competitors to boost the export-based model that had been tarnished as a result of German reunification. [1] No doubt exists that point to a combination of reinforcement and structural weakening of the center and the periphery of Europe respectively, is the cornerstone of the current crisis in the region.
With Veltroni apparent realism argues that "entering the euro, Italy has pledged to reduce public debt and has given up forever to use the currency devaluation, as a form of rigor and discipline of our time improve the competitiveness seems to be "the only game in town" available of our country, like Germany did. Nothing new in the PD (Olivo, DS), in fact, the infamous "less than the fathers to the children" Nicola Rossi. It was very clear to the leaders of this party, that the euro has been specifically designed to import the German discipline. The challenge, however, must be collected, and not enough to criticize.
The Italian crisis is serious, and of course, exacerbated by a management policy of pure resistance, so to speak. The country stagnant for at least two decades, has collapsed with the crisis, and the persistently large current account deficit and lead us inexorably to come soon in the group countries with high external debt. This crisis is part of the European crisis. There are three ways out of it: (a) breaking the euro, (b) make such as Germany, (c) build a Keynesian Europe. Suppose we want to avoid jumping into the darkness of the first election.
The second strategy, Veltroni, is not free of illusions. First, Germany will always be better in his game, and although there is no doubt we have much to learn and emulate in this country - a society with a modicum of discipline and sense of duty is a powerful message left in Italy - is must be careful that this does not become a "social carnage," a simple game in the bottom right is to reduce and achievements, especially the workers and youth. This route also has the nature of what economists call "competitive deflation, a competition between countries on the basis of wage moderation, a surrogate of competitive devaluations, a zero-sum game.
Part of this bleak picture is disturbing Veltroni aim to reduce the public debt ratio to 80% of GDP (currently around 120%) by 2020 through, in particular, a cut in public spending growth (and, but, alternatively, through a special tax on large estates). But GDP growth is that we must rely to a reduction of that relationship, unless an unlikely massive revival of exports by strong wage deflation, reduced spending will negatively affect GDP and tax revenue that will aggravate the debt, the difficulty of Sisyphus that Greece is experiencing.
A series of doses of the third strategy appear to be necessary. This seems, however, also unrealistic, just Germany is opposed to being a dominant economy, the locomotive, a role that has always rejected as an infringement of its own model (which is going to tow the Keynesianism of the others).
The fact is that without a context of European enlargement - which is the opposite of "competitive disinflation" - is difficult to introduce in Italy, not so much the model of Schroeder (say it does not matter), but to win a set of rules, rights and prosperity.
is recognized that the crisis in Europe did to Germany swallowing measures were unthinkable a year ago (the ECB to purchase bonds to support the government securities of countries in virtual default of payment, the progressive Europeanization of its debt), although the timing of German politics continues to aggravate the debt situation of these countries. That steps be more decisive progress anticipated in Germany it is doubtful, given that its Constitutional Court has ruled unconstitutional government European Public Prosecutor.
The political battle in Europe, however, is not given by persuasion or worse, by the European rhetoric. Tremonti has done well to speak out against the Germans by saying that what Europe is trying to save not only indebted countries, but the German creditor banks. So do not think Veltroni unit needed a motion of Parliament, because the ECB would not dare raise interest rates in response to a resurgence of inflation?
Or believe violates the independence of the European Central Bank (ie, its role as watchdog of the fact that German wages should grow in order to balance the competitiveness Europe?). Debt proposals Veltroni seem to give a hand to the hard line that the Germans want to impose on the European periphery (see in relation to the Charter of economists ). Instead, do we want to say out loud that enough is enough?
Original: Economy and Politics
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